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NBA Western Conference Finals Betting Preview
2010-05-17
Talking to a number of various wise guy bettors living in Las Vegas, one conclusion was evident before the playoffs started, yes the Los Angeles Lakers looked vulnerable but were still the safest bet to win another title and the Phoenix Suns were the best long shot among the top four seeds from either conference to become the upset champions of the NBA. Not coincidentally, that is the matchup for the West Finals, which begin Monday in Los Angeles. The Lakers are a -340 series favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
One aspect that is often forgotten in the NBA playoffs is how very good teams can pick up momentum. The Lakers closed the regular season 4-7 SU and ATS, and stumbled a bit in the first round vs. Oklahoma City. However, since then, L.A. has gotten serious about basketball again and has won six straight, covering five times and now another championship ring is in sight.
There is no getting around it (literally), the size of the Lakers’ changes how teams can attack them. With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, it just doesn’t leave much room in the middle, which helps takes away the one inside player the Suns have in Amare Stoudemire.
L.A. guards and wing players can be super aggressive defensively, knowing what they have behind them. Ron Artest is not the defender he was a few years ago, but what he’s lost in quickness he makes up for in smarts and he will try to attach himself at the hip of Jason Richardson or Jared Dudley when he enters the game.
Phoenix has picked up a reputation as being a good defensive team, while they are not as lame as when Mike D’Antoni was coach; they are far from good, mostly just average. With the talk of Grant Hill being a defensive demon, that’s all Kobe Bryant needs for a personal challenge.
Remember last year when Denver had all those high effort guys coming off the bench and they actually gave Phil Jackson’s team trouble at first, yet after Game 3 had little impact, that’s what the Lakers do as the series wears on, systematically they take away your strengths and even Derek Fisher becomes more useful knocking down shots. There is a reason why the Lake Show is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against the Suns at Staples the past three years, they are bigger and better and hard to beat four times.
Since Steve Nash has arrived in the desert with his injury-plagued career in the balance, all he has done is transform Phoenix into the most entertaining team in the NBA and a outfit that has been among the better groups out West. Be that as it may, the window of opportunity is closing and the sense is the entire club and organization knows it.
That creates the first chance for the Suns, desperation, hardly something the Lakers ever feel and when they do, usually nothing good comes from it. (Game 6 Lakers at Boston two years ago comes to mind) Phoenix has to be able to leave it all on the floor each night, no Game 1 or Game 4’s against Portland “we just weren’t focused” nights. You only get once chance to beat a champion and if you let it slip, look in the mirror.
Coach Alvin Gentry is credited for making Phoenix a more complete squad than past versions, with greater attention to detail on both ends of the floor. Steve Nash should be able to run circles around Derek Fisher, but his key is drawing the defense to him to make the assist and frustrate the Lakers big men.
Coach Jackson will try to prevent dibble penetration by Nash and make him more a shooter than facilitator, Nash has to defeat this defense by using the screen and role continually with Stoudemire. If successful, this forces other defenders to get involved and the NBA’s best outside shooting team will find itself with many more open looks.
Phoenix can’t let the Lakers play volleyball on the offensive glass; they have to at least be within five boards at all times once the second half starts.
Gentry’s bench has been a difference maker, which is why this desert squad is 22-4 and 19-6-1 ATS since Mar. 14.
It goes without saying Phoenix has to run, but as they proved against San Antonio, it’s not about running and dunking for layups, it is about beating the Lakers defense back and making the extra pass to find the three-point shooter who is open to bury the shot and wear down the big guys in gold and purple late in games.
As is said in boxing, “contrasting styles make fights”. That will be the case out West, with the Lakers trying to control tempo and have their size be a difference maker, while Phoenix wants to play fast, hit 3’s and make enough defensive stops to matter.
At the end of the day, the Lakers having a long break before the series, another lengthy break before heading to Arizona, gives them rest and ample time to make adjustments, which makes them awfully difficult to beat unless the opponent plays great defense.
Pick- L.A. Lakers (-340) in seven over Phoenix (+280)
NBA: Playoff home teams wise wagers tonight?
2010-04-21
Orlando and Dallas each won their opening first round game and look to build a solid 2-0 lead in their series before taking to the road for a pair. Both teams have been a solid investment of late; however both are matched against division foes that know them well. Can they continue to win or do two coaching legends come up with ways to not only cover the spread, but derail plans of sweeping the initial home encounters. Read on for a look at both games, then head over to the LIVE ODDS and GAME MATCHUPS page on Sportsbook.com for the latest prices and key betting information.
The Magic rather easily built a 22-point in the third quarter against Charlotte, before the Bobcats got with the program and started to play closer to their abilities.
Charlotte was too excited to start Game 1 – “We were a little nervous starting off the game, and they knew it,” forward Gerald Wallace said.
But with some well-timed coaxing from coach Larry Brown, Charlotte battled back to 85-80 by being the aggressor and getting Dwight Howard off his game with extremely physical play.
Howard admitted to receiving little sleep the night before, anxious to start the playoffs and he played liked someone tired and irritable with not enough time on the pillow. Howard had as many fouls as points (5), playing less than 28 minutes. “Superman” was less than super with only seven boards and took silly fouls.
“Their big guys are going to hit him every chance they get. And if he gets one foul retaliating, they’ve done their job,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He can’t get any of those. He’s just going to have to understand no matter how many times they hit him, he can’t hit back. We need him on the floor.”
Orlando came up just short of covering the 9.5-point spread with 98-89 victory and is 21-11 ATS off a home win this season.
The Bobcats are expected to be much more relaxed this time with Wallace and Stephen Jackson as the scoring leaders. Charlotte is 18-9 ATS versus good three point shooting teams (36 percent or higher) and must do a better job containing Jameer Nelson, who was 4-8 from beyond the arc and scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half. Nelson missed the first three rounds of the playoffs a year ago and wants to show his skills this spring.
The Magic are 18-5 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins and are 20-3 and 15-7-1 ATS since the beginning of March. Sportsbook.com has them as 8.5-point picks with a total of 186 and they are 17-7 UNDER off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.
If Orlando loses focus again, Charlotte will try to sneak right in with a 22-9 ATS mark after covering two of its last three against the spread.
It’s often been said in NBA circles that if Dirk Nowitzki is your best player, the chances of NBA title are remote. In his career, Nowitzki has had his postseason up and downs, however has been a much steadier performer in recent years. His Game 1 effort against oft-seen rival San Antonio, deep in the heart of Texas, was close to perfection.
Nowitzki scored 36 points on 12-14 shooting, wore out the nets sinking all 12 free throw attempts and grabbed seven boards while committing a single turnover. “Sometimes,” Nowitzki said, “you have one of those nights where the basket is big.”
The Mavericks have now defeated the Spurs six straight times on their home floor (5-1 ATS) and were the bigger and more aggressive team on Sunday. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood out-muscled and out-hustled San Antonio, contributing to 45-37 edge on the glass.
Richard Jefferson was brought to San Antonio to make them younger on the wings and add speed and quickness. For most of the season he’s looked lost in the black uniform and he was non-factor again with four points on four shots in Game 1. The Spurs are piteous 9-23 ATS revenging a road loss the last two seasons.
Coach Gregg Popovich’s defensive strategy might have to be altered if Nowitzki starts Game 2 where he left off. San Antonio played the German forward straight up with approximately five different defenders, eschewing the double team, trying to cover the other Mavs.
Tony Parker lacked his usual zip to the rim and the Spurs ball-handling was atrocious with 17 turnovers, 11 in the opening 12 minutes.
Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite. Watch for signs of fatigue, since coach Rick Carlisle leaned heavily on his starters, with only three subs seeing significant time. The Mavericks have built a six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and despite a yearlong of bad angles, they are 18-7 ATS playing with two days rest since last season.
San Antonio is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists a game. The Spurs are 23-9 OVER in revenge-mode off a road loss.
Both NBA playoff battles are on TNT, with the first game at 7:05 Eastern.
The StatFox Power Lines show Orlando by 13, Dallas by 2.
NBA: Dallas at Orlando (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-02-19
NBA Friday finds two games on ESPN, with the first one matching the Dallas Mavericks and Orlando Magic. The new-look Mavericks aren’t commanding a whole lot of respect from oddsmakers, as they’ve been installed as 6-point dogs on the road for this one, according to Sportsbook.com.
Carron Butler isn’t off to a great start with the Dallas Mavericks, but he could be in line for a big game his next time out against one of his favorite opponents. The Southwest Division-leading Mavericks have split two games with their new players, with Butler shooting 31.3 percent (10 for 32) and averaging 14.0 points.
The veteran swingman, though, has excelled this season against Orlando (37-18, 26-25-4 ATS), averaging 27.0 points in two wins for Washington. He scored 31 points and hit a 19-foot jumper with 0.5 seconds left to cap a rally from 21 down in a 92-91 win Feb. 10 in his last visit to Orlando.
The Southeast Division-leading Magic remember that shot well. “He played for the Wizards, not Dallas so the Wizards beat us,” guard Vince Carter said. “Right now, it’s our next opponent and that’s just who’s in our way.”
Haywood could be the bigger factor Friday as he’ll try to contain Magic All-Star center Dwight Howard, who averaged 21.5 points and 15.0 rebounds going up against the former Wizards big man this season. Haywood, though, was also fairly productive with averages of 11.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in those games.
Dallas used strong defense against the league’s highest-scoring team to win 107-97 at home over Phoenix on Wednesday, unfortunately they are just 28-44 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.
Orlando opened a three-game homestand with a 116-91 rout of Detroit on Wednesday. Howard had 33 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocks in the Magic’s eighth win in 10 games. Orlando has had consecutive slow defense starts and they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games.
They finish this home stretch against two contenders, facing league-leading Cleveland on Sunday. The Mavericks and Cavaliers have both made major moves before the trade deadline, but Orlando is seemingly content with its roster.
“We wanna win a championship,” Howard said. “We can’t focus in on what other teams are doing. We have to focus in on what we’re doing to get better.” Part of what Howard and teammates have done IS win and they are 73-46 ATS having won two of their last three contests since 2007-08 campaign.
The Mavs have won five of six against the Magic (3-3 ATS), taking three straight in Orlando, all covers. Nowitzki is averaging 26.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists in those games for Dallas, which is trying to avoid its first three-game road slide. They are 13-5 OVER after scoring 105 points or more this season. Though not as dreadful as the Mavs, the Magic haven’t exactly had a lucky rabbit’s foot, with a 5-11 ATS mark when coming off a cover.
Sportsbook.com has the Mavericks receiving six-points with total of 201.5. Here is where it gets weird. Are you ready for this; Dallas hasn’t covered back to back games since Nov. 25-27, a span of 11 chances with no success.
This is the ESPN Friday night opener at 8:00 Eastern and Orlando is 10-1 UNDER on Friday nights this season. The StatFox Power Line shows Orlando by 11.
NBA: Two NBA Televised Betting Choices Friday
2009-12-11
The Cleveland Cavaliers suddenly find themselves on a two-game losing streak against Western Conference opponents after winning their previous 13, but both of those came away from Quicken Loans Arena. The Portland Trailblazers know rather well they’re much tougher to beat at home. Cleveland plays as a 9-point favorite at Sportsbook.com for Friday’s contest and ¾ of bettors have been willing to lay the points thus far according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Read on for a preview of this game and the nightcap on ESPN, Orlando at Phoenix.
LeBron James has had a triple-double the last two times the Cavaliers hosted Portland, and he’ll try to help Cleveland avoid a rare three-game skid Friday night as it seeks a seventh straight home win both overall and against the Trail Blazers.
The Cavaliers (15-7, 11-11 ATS) won their final eight games against Western opponents in 2008-09 and their first five this season, but that streak was snapped Tuesday in a 111-109 overtime loss in Memphis.
Twenty-one turnovers plagued Cleveland against the Grizzlies, and they were a problem again Wednesday in Houston. The Cavaliers gave it away 20 times against the Rockets in a 95-85 loss.
Cleveland hasn’t lost three straight since March 22-29, 2008 and is 17-3 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.
James is averaging a career-high 3.8 turnovers, though he’s also dish out a career-best 8.2 assists per game, and Cleveland is at its best when he’s getting his teammates involved. The Cavaliers are 9-2 when he has at least nine assists and 7-1 when he attempts 17 shots or fewer. Cleveland has covered 17 of their last 24 Friday night assignments.
The production of point guard Mo Williams, Cleveland’s second-leading scorer at 16.8 points per game, has also been consequential to the Cavaliers’ success. Cleveland is 11-2 if Williams hits 40 percent of his shots and 13-3 when he scores 12 points or more.
Williams averaged 22.5 points as the Cavaliers swept Portland (14-9, 11-12 ATS) last season - pouring in 33 in a 104-98 win at the Rose Garden on Jan. 21 - but James has been Cleveland’s catalyst against the Blazers at home. The reigning MVP has averaged 27.7 points in leading the Cavaliers to a 6-0 record during his career when Portland visits, finishing with 26 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in a 97-92 overtime victory March 19.
Three of James’ 25 career triple-doubles have come against the Blazers. With Portland sporting a 6-5 road record (spread mark is the same), the Cavs are 14-4 ATS at home vs. a team with a positive visitors record.
Portland, meanwhile, has had to lean even more on its multitalented All-Star recently with its lineup depleted by injury. Brandon Roy had averaged 25.0 points during that rough patch, but another big effort against the Pacers paid off. The 2007 rookie of the year had 29 points, seven rebounds and five assists in lifting Portland to a 102-91 win and they are 26-13 ATS off a double digit victory.
Like the Cavaliers’ success when James involves his teammates more, the Blazers don’t typically thrive on Roy’s big games - they’re 3-5 when he scores 25 points or more.
Roy has averaged 19.4 points on 40.5 percent shooting in his career against Cleveland.
Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as nine-point favorites with total of 184 and they are 23-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since last season. Portland is 3-9 and 4-8 ATS in last 12 visits near the shores of Lake Erie and is 14-3 UNDER in road games on Friday nights over the last three seasons.
This ESPN game starts at 8:00 Eastern and is immediately followed by Orlando heading into the Arizona desert.
After a fruitless road trip, the Phoenix Suns probably can’t wait for their next game at U.S. Airways Center. Awaiting the NBA’s only unbeaten home team, however, is one of the league’s best road squads. The Suns will attempt to keep their perfect record intact Friday night with their eighth consecutive home win against the Orlando Magic, who will try to put a second-half collapse behind them.
Following a 14-3 start, fatigue appears to have set in for Phoenix, who has played a league-high 15 road games. The Suns (15-7, 12-10 ATS) have gone from averaging 112.0 points during their hot start to 98.6 while losing four of five this month — all away from home.
Orlando (17-5, 13-9 ATS) scored 60 in the first half Thursday night vs. Utah and led by as many as 18, but saw its advantage cut to eight at halftime and allowed the Jazz to start the second half on a 14-3 run. “Once we gave them confidence, gave them an opportunity to really get rolling, it was tough to stop that machine,” swingman Vince Carter said.
The Magic never recovered from there in a 120-111 defeat, their first away from home since Nov. 8. They had also previously won 23 straight dating back to last season when scoring at least 100, including a 122-100 home win over Phoenix on Nov. 4.
Carter, who scored a season-high 34 Thursday, has helped the defending Eastern Conference champions to a 10-3 (8-5 ATS) road record this season. Playing in 11 games away from home, Carter has averaged 21.7 points. Orlando is outstanding 18-5 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.
He leads the Magic with 20.1 points, just ahead of Howard (18.4). Carter also has scored an average of 25.6 points in 10 career games at U.S. Airways Center.
Amare Stoudemire, meanwhile, has led the Suns to a 7-0 (4-3 ATS) mark at home with 22.4 points on 61.7 percent shooting, but he also appears to be dealing with fatigue lately with one 20-point performance in his last seven contests overall.
Along with its third straight win in the series, Orlando is searching for its first victory in Phoenix since Nov. 14, 2001 (0-7 SU & 5-2 ATS) and they are 1.5-point road underdogs with total of 215.5. The Magic are 10-1 ATS after playing three consecutive road games 14-4 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest. The Suns haven’t fared as well against quality road clubs with 2-6 ATS mark if they have win percentage of .600 or higher.
The total figures to be a dichotomy with these two teams and Orlando is 17-7 UNDER versus offensive teams scoring 103 or more points a game, while Phoenix is 21-4 OVER at home after playing consecutive road games. Yet it is interesting to find the Suns are 7-0 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more three straight games this season.
The StatFox Power Lines show Cleveland by 6, Phoenix by 1
NBA: Do the Houston Rockets even have chance?
2009-05-05
Coach Rick Adelman's squad has engineered one upset in the NBA Playoffs; do they have a chance for another? Conventional wisdom would suggest no, going up against seemingly invincible Los Angeles Lakers, who have all the parts needed to win a NBA title. Houston lost all four games and failed to cover the spread against the Lakers this season, falling by an average of 13 points per game. No NBA team has ever won a best of seven series after losing all four contests to opponent.
Houston has only two areas that they look to have a potential edge, but they are important ones. At the center position is Yao Ming, who is bigger and more skilled than Andrew Bynum. If Ming can draw quick fouls to put Bynum on the bench, that forces coach Phil Jackson to slide Pau Gasol to play center and Ming can physically overpower him. Though Ming is mechanical and slow-footed, he has figured out how to beat double-teams with a feathery touch from about 10 feet.
The other position on the floor where the Rockets should exploit L.A. is at point guard. Aaron Brooks looks like the Energizer Bunny compared to Derek Fisher and should run circles around him on the offensive end of the floor.
Ron Artest and Shane Battier will take their shots at guarding Kobe Bryant, who averaged 28.3 points per game against Houston. Those two will try to get physical against Bryant to wear him down. Forward Luis Scola is a bit of a wild card and is very solid, not making many mistakes and can be punishing to Lakers in the frontcourt. Houston wears the underdog collar well and is 6-2 ATS as playoff dogs of five to 10 points. But will it be enough?
Los Angeles was too often a disinterested team when building big leads against Utah, and Houston is much more skilled at playing defense and controlling tempo, contrarian to how the Lakers want to play. Though the always lovable Ron-Ron is one frown away from being combustible, he seems oblivious to being a step slower with 10 years under his belt and is all-NBA trash-talker.
Kobe has to keep his cool and let his play speak for him. Houston dismantled Portland 92-76 in Game 6 to cover the 5.5-point spread and they are 13-29 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. Though Bynum's game is less polished than Ming's, he has enough power moves to attract silly fouls on him and he can use his quickness to thwart Ming's size.
The Lakers are 16-6 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game and if Lamar Odom wants to make a name for himself, the Rockets are perfect foil, since they don't have a player on the roster to stop him if he doesn't want to be stopped.
Fisher will try to run Brooks ragged thru screens in the triangle offense and if he hits outside shots, he can negate the former Oregon Ducks speed edge.
The first two games will be at the Staples Center where the gold-clad Lakers are 39-5 (21-23 ATS) and have covered six of last seven with three or more days rest. In the series opener, L.A. is an eight-point favorite with total of 193 at Sportsbook.com. A focused Los Angeles squad is 9-1 ATS at home after three or more consecutive Unders and 6-2 OVER after a victory.
Houston has to play their game, but doing so on could be problematic, as they are 2-6 ATS recently against teams with winning home records. They are also 11-3 OVER after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.
The Lakers are huge -1200 favorites to win the series, but Houston is capable of forcing the Lakers hand if they stay scatterbrained. TNT has Game 1 at 10:35 Eastern, watch to see who sets the pace for later profits.
NBA: NBA Duel in Denver (10:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-03-06
One of the most exciting divisional races in the NBA at this point in the season is that in the Northwest Division, where Denver & Portland are separated by just ½ game. The two teams get together in the Mile High City tonight in a key TNT televised clash. Get the latest line & total for this contest by visiting the LIVE ODDS page.
For whatever reasons, normally the Northwest Division doesn’t get much play nationally. Everybody has heard of Denver, Portland, Salt Lake City, Minneapolis and to a much lesser degree Oklahoma City, but none of them are vacation spots or have deep-rooted history like a Boston of Philadelphia. From the basketball perspective, this division is the only one since realignment that has never had a NBA champion which may be another reason not many pay attention. But as we head down the backstretch of another NBA campaign, the Northwest has a scintillating three team horse race, all grouped right together, with quite a finish anticipated.
The top two teams are Denver (39-22, 33-27-1 ATS) and Portland (38-22, 30-29-1 ATS) and they will do battle on TNT tonight in tussle for the division lead.
Two weeks ago, the Nuggets had a moderately comfortable 3.5-game lead in the division, but after losing five of seven (1-6 ATS), including the last two, they are tied in the loss column with the Trailblazers. Portland has not backed into this position either, winners of six of last eight, including a non-cover over Indiana last night 107-105.
The Blazers are 25-11 ATS after scoring 105 or more points and this is a critical game for them based on scheduling. Portland has been a superb home team all season, yet like many young teams; find the road not nearly as friendly. The Blazers are 13-17 and 12-18 ATS as visitors and if they could manage to win tonight and take over first place, their next four games are back in Oregon, where they are 25-5.
Denver traveled into the Midwest and found an Indiana team that is playing competitive and was beaten, which was followed by the misfortune of playing at Detroit who has regained confidence. The Nuggets star, Carmelo Anthony, sat out the Pistons game after coach George Karl suspended him for one game, basically for insubordination. Anthony returns and the last thing Denver needs at the moment is locker room issues, since they have to travel to Utah tomorrow, who has won nine in a row and is one game behind the Nuggets.
Sportsbook.com has Denver as 4.5-point home favorites with a total of 198.5. The Nuggets are 23-9 ATS after playing two consecutive road games and have shown a tendency to play Over when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points with 35-21 OVER mark. Brandon Roy and the Trailblazers have blazed a winning wager trail with 11-2 ATS record after playing two games as a home favorite this season and are 18-6 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in consecutive outings.
These division rivals have split a pair of games this season, each winning and covering on home floor. In the history between these clubs, Denver has held the upper hand in the Mile High City with 18-6 and 16-7-1 ATS record, with the total going OVER 73.9 percent of the time. Tip off is set for 10:35 Eastern.
StatFox Power Line – Denver by 2
NBA Top Weekend Power Trends
2008-12-19
A check of the NBA standings after a month-and-a-half reveals that the balance of power has shifted to the Eastern Conference. After being dominated by the West for most of this decade, the East has finally rebounded, boasting three of the league’s top four teams. In fact, as a show of this strength, on Thursday night, the Orlando Magic manhandled the Spurs to become the league’s fourth 20-game winner, joining Boston, the Lakers, and Cleveland. All four teams will be in action this weekend, and all are playing well enough to earn your trust and betting dollar. Here’s a look at the games over the next few days, plus this weekend’s top StatFox Power Trends to consider.
On Friday there are 12 games to whet your wagering appetite. The ESPN doubleheader features the Lakers visiting Miami followed by Cleveland taking on the Nuggets in the Mile High City. Los Angeles is the only one of our four top teams to be under-.500 against the spread at 11-13 ATS. However, the heat are the league’s worst team against the number so far at 8-16 ATS. They have won seven of 12 games at home. The Cavaliers are playing the third game of a 4-game road trip. They’ve won 12 of their L13 games both SU & ATS, but haven’t won in Denver since 2004. Elsewhere on Friday, the Jazz will look for a 6th straight win over the Pistons when they visit the Motor City, Chicago will take on the Celtics in Boston.
Saturday’s board offers ten games, none bigger than the Lakers and Magic from the land of Disney World. Kobe & Co. will be playing the second half of their annual back-to-back Florida road swing after visiting Miami on Friday night. After beating the Spurs Thursday, Orlando advanced to 9-3 at home. They are also 10-4 SU & ATS vs. the Western Conference this season, another sign of how far the East has come the last couple of years. Other big games on the Saturday slate include Utah visiting Chicago on a back-to-back, and Denver taking on the Suns in Phoenix. HC Terry Porter’s team continues to struggle with inconsistency and is 5-14 ATS over the last month or so.
The weekend gets wrapped up with four Sunday contests, including one matinee affair between the Pistons and Hawks from Atlanta, a 2:05 PM ET start. Detroit has won eight of its L9 vs. Atlanta but of course, these Hawks are much improved over most of the teams accounting for that horrid stretch. However, they are in the midst of a tough bit of scheduling in which they’ve faced many of the league’s top teams. Later on in the evening, Boston hosts a New York, Dallas visits the nation’s capitol, and Cleveland concludes its road trip in Oklahoma City versus the Thunder, who went into the weekend with a 2-24 record.
Here are some of the top StatFox Power Trends that will be in play over the next three days.
Friday, 12/19/2008
(507) CHICAGO vs. (508) BOSTON
BOSTON is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ PPG over L2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 102.9, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 2*)
(509) DALLAS vs. (510) NEW JERSEY
DALLAS is 17-5 UNDER (+11.5 Units) vs poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over L2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 97.7, OPPONENT 93.7 - (Rating = 2*)
(515) CHARLOTTE vs. (516) MEMPHIS
MEMPHIS is 27-9 OVER (+17.1 Units) as a home favorite over L3 seasons. The average score was MEMPHIS 108, OPPONENT 107.6 - (Rating = 2*)
(517) LA LAKERS vs. (518) MIAMI
LA LAKERS are 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by 3+ RPG over L2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.7, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 3*)
(523) CLEVELAND vs. (524) DENVER
George Karl is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) at home vs. good rebounding teams (3+ RPG Diff) as coach of DENVER. The average score was Karl 104.8, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 2*)
Saturday, 12/20/2008
(707) SACRAMENTO vs. (708) NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) at home revenging a same season loss vs opponent over L2 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 102.7, OPPONENT 86.9 - (Rating = 3*)
(707) SACRAMENTO vs. (708) NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS is 32-14 UNDER (+16.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over L2 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 96.5, OPPONENT 92.6 - (Rating = 2*)
(711) HOUSTON vs. (712) MINNESOTA
Rick Adelman is 39-16 ATS (+21.4 Units) vs poor pressure defenses forcing <=14 TO's/game as coach of HOUSTON. The average score was Adelman 95.4, OPPONENT 87.6 - (Rating = 3*)
(719) DENVER vs. (720) PHOENIX
George Karl is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% - 60%) as coach of DENVER. The average score was Karl 104.6, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 12/21/2008
(501) DETROIT vs. (502) ATLANTA
DETROIT is 42-22 ATS (+17.8 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3PT shots/game over L2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 96.4, OPPONENT 90.4 - (Rating = 2*)
(503) NEW YORK vs. (504) BOSTON
BOSTON is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) vs. division opponents over L2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 103.6, OPPONENT 90.1 - (Rating = 3*)